Monday, April 6, 2020

Surviving the Coronavirus: Part 10

Time for Cautious Optimism Edition

This will be the shortest post of this august series so far. I'll provide a little extra white space to allow the cheering to die down.


I just checked the number of infections in the U.S. The curve seems to be noticeably rounding.  I checked the doubling period. It jumped to 9 days. I've updated my chart and I present the current version below.  Behold.


If the doubling period continues to increase, I will gladly miss my prediction that we will have a million infections by the end of the month. We will still go over a million infections, by a substantial amount, but perhaps not this month.

The one-day jump from 6 to 9 days might be a one day anomaly. Alternatively, it may be more evidence that we are indeed flattening the hell out of the curve. I'll check again tomorrow. Assuming that I'm not one of the one-in-a-thousand of us infected, I might provide another update.

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